My first post blog post was June 10, just six months ago. The first week just a handful of people read the blog. Today thanks to you readers seniorhousingforum.net is the fastest growing senior housing blog. I am profoundly grateful for each one of you. – A special thanks goes to those who have commented on the blogs. You provide a richness that I could never provide on my own. I especially appreciate those who disagree with what I write. Disagreement provides a depth to any discussion that does not occur in a love fest. – I want to also thank those of you who have contributed to Senior Housing Forum by writing a guest blog. I am looking forward to more contributions next year. – This coming year I will begin a series of profiles on senior housing companies and senior housing vendors. The goal will be to better connect the community by telling their unique stories. If you feel your organization has a unique compelling story I would like to talk with you.
LOOKING FORWARD . . . some predictions
Senior housing in 2012 will look very similar to 2011, well funded, experienced, successful operators will continue to develop new projects at a modest pace. – We will also see some significant failures in the senior housing marketplace. This will be the result of two factors. The first is an overly optimistic perception of the size and value of the marketplace for high end senior housing communities. The second is the inability of seniors to sell homes in conjunction with grossly diminished investment accounts. – In the last few years there has been an explosion in the number of memory care units and communities being developed. For the most part they have been extremely successful and profitable. In the coming year while there will continue to be come great opportunities in this area, we will begin to see market saturation and some failing communities. – There will be very little movement up or down in overall senior housing occupancy rates.
There will only be a few spectacular success stories with most communities having to work hard for every new resident. – We will begin to see some new more cost effective assisted living models emerge. – Skilled nursing will be a very mixed bag. Medicare funding will feel uncertain but will ultimately be reasonable. Some states will provide adequate funding and others will attempt to balance their budgets on the backs of skilled nursing. In those states wasteful lawsuits will be required to maintain what is in effect just bare bones funding. Finally I wish each of you continued success.
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Finally: If you know anyone who is looking at emergency call systems I would appreciate the opportunity to talk with them about Vigil Health Solutions.