By Rebecca Wiessmann
This article is based on a conversation with Bill Pettit, co-founder of Black Dog Capital Advisors.
Bill Pettit has built senior living communities for three decades, and he says the biggest mistake the industry is making is simple: “We keep building in places nobody wants to live.”
The Age-in-Place Reality
“Boomers want to age where they live, not in some age-segregated development forty minutes from everything they know, but in the actual communities they’ve been part of for decades. They’re not looking to relocate to a campus, no matter how nice the amenities are,” Pettit explains.
This preference fundamentally challenges how the industry has done business. Historically, operators built large campuses in suburban or exurban locations where land is cheap. They offered amenities and services and assumed that would compensate for removing seniors from their neighborhoods, shopping areas, cultural institutions, and social networks they’d spent decades building.
Turns out? It doesn’t compute, at least not for boomers.
Urban Integration, Not Isolation
The implication is clear: senior living must become more urban, more integrated into existing neighborhoods, and more connected to the broader community. This raises land costs and creates development challenges, but it aligns with what boomers actually want — and are willing to pay for.
For developers and operators, this means completely rethinking site selection, building scale, and community programming. Rather than creating self-contained worlds, successful developments will serve as anchors within multigenerational neighborhoods where seniors can maintain connections across age groups and continue participating in the civic life they’ve always known.
This isn’t just about convenience — it’s about identity. Boomers built their lives in these communities. They know the shopkeepers, they volunteer at the library, they have their favorite coffee shop. “We’re asking them to give all that up to move somewhere ‘more appropriate’? Good luck with that,” says Pettit.
The Transition Period
Pettit doesn’t sugarcoat the challenge: the industry faces a difficult period ahead. New supply is restricted by inflation, high interest rates, and elevated construction costs. He estimates a challenging 24-36 month window before market conditions stabilize.
During this transition, opportunities will emerge for those positioned to capitalize. Distressed properties struggling with post-COVID challenges will need strategic repositioning. Financing pressures will create acquisition opportunities. And operators willing to experiment with new models will gain first-mover advantages as the boomer wave intensifies.
But the larger question is whether the industry will embrace change quickly enough. Boomers won’t wait for operators to figure it out. They’ll either force the industry to adapt or create alternative solutions outside traditional senior living altogether.
What Success Looks Like
Through Black Dog Capital Advisors, Pettit is raising capital for active adult developments that embody these principles. They’re community-focused, choice-driven, technology-enabled, and above all, accessible to middle-income seniors who represent the vast majority of the market.
But whether his specific model succeeds isn’t the point, Pettit argues. “The point is that baby boomers will transform senior living just as they’ve transformed every other institution they’ve encountered. The only question is whether we’ll transform with them or be transformed by them.”
The communities that thrive will be those that recognize boomers don’t see themselves as old, don’t want to be segregated by age, expect hospitality-focused environments without medicalization, demand choice and flexibility, and insist on affordability that makes senior living accessible to middle-income Americans.
Why He’s Still Optimistic
Despite everything he’s said about how hard this transition will be, Pettit remains deeply optimistic about senior living’s future. America is aging, and the need for housing and community solutions for seniors will only intensify. The demographic wave is undeniable.
“There’s going to be more money and more profitable returns to capital in the next five to ten years than we’ve seen to date. But capturing this opportunity requires humility and willingness to question long-held assumptions,” he says.
It means recognizing that what worked for the Silent Generation won’t work for boomers. It means building in the places people actually want to live, even when it’s harder and more expensive. It means solving for affordability rather than accepting the industry can only serve the affluent.
“For operators, developers, and investors willing to embrace change, the opportunity is immense. For those clinging to outdated models, the next decade will be unforgiving,” Pettit warns.
“The greatest returns don’t come from perfecting yesterday’s solutions. They come from having the courage to reimagine what’s possible tomorrow. And tomorrow is going to look a lot different than today — whether we’re ready or not.”
