By Steve Moran

I am writing this at the InterFace Seniors Housing West conference. The current presentation is a panel titled “Capital Markets Update: When will the leading spigot get turned back on?”

One of the questions addressed which property types are getting funding and which types capital providers are shying away from. The one consensus was that every single panelist had a negative view of freestanding memory care as an asset type.

Jump in My Time Machine 

Join me in my time machine and let’s take a journey back to the NIC Fall Conference 10 years ago. There was one thing “everyone was sure of.” There was one emerging senior living property type where the need was so massive that it would be impossible to come even close to meeting the demand.

That product type?

Yep, memory care.

The Experts

At one time, the experts, the wise people, the smart money, was convinced the need and demand for memory care was going to be so great that it would be impossible to build enough memory care communities. We now, of course, know that is not true and not likely to ever be true.

Right Now

Right now we are being told by The Wall Street Journal that boomers are about to rekindle the senior housing market. We also have a lot of people who believe active 55+ will have massive success. Don’t count on either one of these things happening, because this expert says “they won’t.”

These “expert predictions” are a problem for a couple of reasons. First they attract new developers and investors to the business thinking they can easily make bundles of money, when they can’t. The second reason is that they lull people into thinking they don’t need to focus on excellence.

What Is True

What is true is that there will always be a market for great memory care, great senior living of all types. Demographics don’t matter, the economy doesn’t matter, the labor market doesn’t matter. Great operators who create great experiences for residents and family members will have full and profitable communities.