By Jack Cumming
Has the question occurred to you, “Why are the AI giants going public just now?” One possible takeaway is that those best positioned to know believe their businesses are overvalued and that it’s time to fold and cash out. That would leave the public vulnerable, with those who now have the most ownership selling out to an overoptimistic public just when valuations are set to drop to more realistic levels. As I write this on June 12, 2026, we’ve just experienced the optimistic takeoff for the SpaceX IPO.
What does that have to do with senior living? The answer is that senior living is caught up in the big question: How should we come to grips with AI? Is it the boon that will allow fewer care providers to care for a large old age demographic? The alternative view is that AI is enormously overrated and that wise money will wait for more sensible times before buying the AI vendor marketing hype.
We’ll return to senior living after gaining perspective with an intro to “hard knocks” investor wisdom. Remember that buyers, including senior living vendor customers and even resident move-ins, are also investors. They invest in what they buy, promises in the case of senior living move-ins.
Market Wisdom
Three words of advice from mentors come to mind. Mike Lynch, an owner of mines and shipping lines, gave me my first break when, at age 16, I worked the first of two summers in a silver mine. He taught me the common wisdom, “A bull and a bear make money. A hog never.” Then there was Frank Raab, an insurance company president, who taught me the value of networking. His teaching, “The guy with the idea thinks he’s God. And the guy with the money thinks he’s God. At the end of the day, the guy with the money is God.”
For senior living, though, I turn to a mentor whom I only met through reading. Bernard Baruch began his career as a broker, executing deals for others. Then, he trended into successful speculation. His wisdom, for which there was no quip, was that brokers should not be speculators. The analogy is that senior living leaders should never be speculators.
Senior Living Realities
Why? Senior living involves other people’s money, the money they need for living. That is a trust undertaking. The money that senior living bankers, developers, and operators play with is money given in trust, and that requires prudence to keep it safe. Lending money to an enterprise with an impaired balance sheet is speculation that future gains will offset the deficit of the past. Investing in real estate in Mexico is pure speculation. Other speculative senior living investments are less obvious, e.g., expansion can meet a need, but it’s also risky.
For now, it may be better that senior living is talking more about AI than actually letting it handle critical life-sustaining applications. It’s no secret that senior living has lagged in adopting technology. Some providers still rely principally on paper, while most others look to vendors to lead the way. Providers often have technology departments that are more buyers than proactive, creative thinkers, much less masters of underlying technologies.
The opportunity is there to use emerging technologies, including AI, to upend senior living for the better, though I see no organization showing the insight to take the lead. An intriguing example, though, is Amazon’s AI-driven medical assistant. Whether Amazon still has the creative spark, though, to build a business that disrupts medical services as it disrupted retailing seems unlikely.
Learning From Amazon
Why am I skeptical about Amazon? Looking at Amazon’s current approach, for one thing, for Rx, they are partnering with Cigna’s Express Scripts instead of Mark Cuban’s more imaginative initiative. It’s like what Amazon did with its Smart Properties program for senior living. Instead of duplicating what Jeff Bezos did with books, the current Amazon leadership is partnering with established entities instead of leveraging convention, such as Ingram Books, in the case of Bezos, to disrupt the market for the end user.
If Bezos had tried to compete with Ingram instead of usurping them, Amazon would not be the giant it became. When Bezos started, anyone could have copied him with a website and Ingram’s distribution. But Bezos didn’t let them get ahead of him. He moved so fast that he was dominant before potential competitors realized they’d been scooped. Imagine senior living ever becoming known for moving fast. Senior living is like the booksellers in the pre-Bezos era.
The Opportunity Is There
The Amazon initiative is indicative of what might be possible for senior living. It could even be the industry’s best opportunity. The industry has been banking on a short-term demographic wave to give it effortless prosperity, but that seems shortsighted to anyone familiar with history.
Is AI now overhyped? It sure seems like it is. If it’s not, then the disruption will itself be a thing of social terror. Let’s try to get perspective on AI’s future and garner the potential while avoiding excess. The opportunity is there. The question is, who will have the wisdom to gain from it? It could be senior living. Is anyone ready to disrupt geriatrics? It’s more than cute, friendly AI companions.
Does AI have enormous potential, especially for senior living? I think so. Are we in an AI market bubble with the players now rushing their IPOs? I again think so. For those gifted with realistic wisdom and good judgment, Bernard Baruch had a word of advice: “Be who you are and say what you feel, because those who mind don’t matter, and those who matter don’t mind.” That’s as good now as when he first said it.
